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The environment minister, Marina Silva, has urged every country to demonstrate the bravery needed to address the imperative of a global transition away from fossil fuels, labeling the creation of a detailed plan as an “ethical” response to the global warming emergency.
She stressed, though, that involvement in this endeavor would be optional and “independently decided” for willing nations.
This issue stands as one of the most debated subjects at the COP30 in the host country, with nations split over if and in what way such a roadmap can be addressed. As the host, Brazil has maintained a carefully neutral position on which items can be placed on the formal schedule.
Silva expressed approval for the potential of a plan, without explicitly committing the country to it. The minister remarked: “In times we have a situation that is quite grim, it is helpful that we have a guide. But the map does not force us to proceed, or to climb.”
In an interview, the minister added: “The roadmap is an response to our scientific understanding [of the climate crisis]. It is an ethical response.”
Dozens of countries meeting in Belém for the global climate conference, which is entering its next phase, are aiming to establish how a worldwide phaseout of fossil fuels could be implemented. These nations aim to build on a landmark agreement reached two years ago at COP28 to “transition away from non-renewable energy sources.”
The pledge had no a timetable or details on how it could be achieved, and even though it was passed unanimously, some countries have since attempted to back away from the pledge. Efforts last year to elaborate on its real-world implications were stymied by resistance from oil-dependent nations at another UN summit.
Consequently, there was no reference of the transition away from carbon fuels in the final agreement of COP29.
Because of this, Brazil has been cautious of calls by some nations to place the phaseout on the schedule for the current summit. But the minister has strived in private to ensure the pledge could be discussed at the summit outside the official program.
The minister won over the nation's leader, and he made public reference three times to the need to “shift from dependence on traditional energy” at the summit of world leaders that preceded the conference, and at the opening of the event.
“This is something that we know at a certain time had to be raised, because it is the only way to face the issue from the root,” Marina Silva explained. “We recognise that it is not easy, and we must not sell false hopes. Raising the subject is courageous, and I wish [to see] this bravery from everyone, from producers and using countries.”
Brazil had not initiated the push for a phaseout, she clarified, because that had been initiated at COP28. Rather, it was allowing the discussions to take place in line with what certain nations wished. “We know these subjects are sensitive. We will give the opportunity to talk about it,” the minister said.
Time is insufficient at COP30 to draw up a roadmap, a task Silva called could take several years because many countries confronted complex issues around reliance on carbon-based energy, or wanted to use the proceeds from selling fossil fuels to fund their development.
“Brazil raises the topic, because it is both a producing nation and consumer,” she said. “But Brazil is unique, because it, if it chooses to, does not have to rely on non-renewables. We have to recognise that there are certain nations that depend on carbon energy in their economic systems and don’t have simple solutions, and others where fossil fuels are the foundation of their economic structure.
“To be fair is to be fair to all, but the fundamental, primordial justice is not being unjust to the planet, because it is our home.”
If the pledge gains sufficient backing, the summit could set up a forum in which the work of drawing up a strategy to the phaseout could begin.
This process would require dialogue with all signatory nations to the UN framework convention on climate change and guidelines for how the initiative would unfold, Silva said. “Once we have standards, a governance structure can be drawn up; once we have a strategy, and establish protections to be able to build trust in the process, I believe that with these elements we can turn good ideas into actions that are more defined, and more concrete.”
It is uncertain that a suggestion to begin developing a plan would be accepted at COP30, even if it may not need the formal consent of the summit, which proceeds by unanimous agreement and can be disrupted by special interests. COP analysts have suggested they believe there could be support for such a idea from about sixty countries, but there are thought to be at least 40 against. There are 195 nations participating at the talks.
“Despite being the primary source of global warming, fossil fuels are about the most divisive subject there is within the UN negotiations, so to see a sizable coalition of countries openly backing a route to achieving worldwide transition is in itself highly significant.”
“In simple terms, there’s no path to a planet where temperature rise stays below 1.5 degrees in which countries cannot to talk about ending fossil fuel use.”
“We need this wording for actual in this discussion. It’s highly illogical that we discuss all topics but then when the main issue are the actual problem.”
Negotiations carried on on the weekend on several unresolved topics that have not yet been included into the official agenda: commerce, openness, finance and how to address the shortfall between the emissions cuts countries have proposed and those required to hold to the 1.5C temperature target.
The summit chair pledged a “document” that would address these matters, after discussions – which have been going on since Monday – were unresolved. The official urged countries to embrace the “mutirão” attitude, meaning one of cooperation and positive discussion.
Work on other substantive topics – such as adaptation to the impacts of the climate emergency, the fair shift for those impacted by the transition to a low-carbon economic system and how to build governance capabilities in less developed nations – carried on productively, the host reported.
The host nation's lead representative stated the detailed part of the summit process was nearing completion, and the high-level phase – when government leaders who have the authority to alter their countries’ stances arrive – was beginning.
Elara Vance is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.